My player is deeeaaaad

[Spoit]

<3 you too baidol.

[baidol]

I could never stay angry at you, Spoit.

[phyphor]

Interestingly, this game still has a very high probability of mafia win

Let's go on the assumption that the network is 4 strong leaving 3 mafia and 3 unknown villagers

It's likely that the mafia will take out two network members tonight, however the network takes out two unknowns as well, making either 2:3:1, 2:2:2 or 2:1:3 (mafia win)

Mafia takes out the vig:

This is the favourable path for the mafia, the village only controls 1 kill at that point
2:2:2 leads to either a mafia win or 2 v 1, and an outcome depending on who is left
2:3:1 leads to a 2v1 which depends on who is left


Mafia does not take out the vig:

2:2:2 leads to a high probability mafia win unless the vig doesn't kill (4 kills means 2 are left, have to hit both mafia or you lose)
2:3:1 leads to a high probability village win based on pure chance of either of the two kills hitting. Again, the best course of action for the vig is to not attack, leading to a 2v1 subsequent day and more information for the vote


If the mafia does not take out two network members the odds get substantially worse (to the point where the vig is alive paths are substantially worse instead of better). If the network is larger then a village win is a much higher probability

[Spoit]

Yeah, in retrospect, 2 kills may be a bit powerful in a 20 person game. Though given the networks string of luck, it's not quite as bad as it could have been

[wanderinghero]

They should have a general idea of at least two mafia at this point or be contacting anyone not in the network to find out.

Mafia are basically forced to talk to a network member that talks to them at this point and it's easier to see the inconsistencies when you have four people on your side.

[kime]

Also mafia's chances of knocking out two network members isn't all that high, either.

[phyphor]

Jul 29, 2011 5:35:11 GMT -8 kime said:

Also mafia's chances of knocking out two network members isn't all that high, either.

They have the one (two?) kills that got blocked to start with. Specifically, last night's, which should either be the vig or seer

[rysk]

How intriguing

Baidol, didn't you talk with Taya at the outset..?

[segatai]

Yea based on the mafia's guarded kill attempts I like there odds

[phyphor]

My prediction: guard was on seer (which is standard practice but may not be optimal in this game). Village takes out one mafia. Vig doesn't hold off killing tomorrow and the game ends 1-1 mafia win

[stever777]

How has the Mentor Program gone, from the mentor perspective, of course? What have you guys offered and pointed out, in general?
Lots of hands-on or more relaxed approaches?

[baidol]

Jul 29, 2011 7:02:41 GMT -8 rysk said:

How intriguing

Baidol, didn't you talk with Taya at the outset..?

I spoke with Taya, Facetious and Alkey. Notably, Taya followed through with my idea to off stever while Facetious did not.

[baidol]

I will say I have enjoyed watching Alkey play.

I'm kind of hoping his latest move is a mafia gambit.

[tmoiy]

Hey guys.

I was trying really hard to seem suspicious and sow a little confusion so that the mafia would keep me around. Probably too hard, since the mafia saw through my ploy. (Taya, care to chime in on the mafia's thought processes last night?) Since I was in the network I didn't really have to be worried about getting killed by the village.

Anything you guys want to know about the network?

[phyphor]

Was the guard on the vig or seer?